Major Leadership Changes in Ukrainian Defense
In a significant move, Ukraine has replaced key figures in its military and political defense apparatus over the past week. This included the removal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov on July 15, followed six days later by Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii. Several of their experienced subordinates also departed. These changes occurred despite what many observers consider to be a period of improved performance by the Ukrainian armed forces, marking what could be Russia's most challenging year of the conflict in terms of personnel losses, territorial gains, and domestic economic impact.
Reports from Ukraine's Ministry of Defense indicate that approximately 193,500 Russian troops have been either killed or seriously wounded this year, with an average of 32,000 losses per month – a new high. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service suggests that Moscow is struggling to meet its recruitment targets. Concurrently, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank, reports that Russia has achieved a net gain of only 81.1 square kilometers of territory this year, with the trend of territorial shifts increasingly favoring Ukraine. Specifically, after a challenging June that saw Russia gain only 30 square kilometers, July has reportedly resulted in net losses of 1.6 square kilometers per day for Russian forces, according to the ISW.
Economically, Russia's war economy, which experienced growth between 2022 and 2024, has seen its expansion flatten to just 0.2 percent this year, a figure acknowledged by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Internal Debates on Military Strategy
While Ukraine has previously replaced defense ministers and commanders-in-chief, this recent shake-up is notable for its simultaneous nature, suggesting it stems from internal strategic disagreements. Following Fedorov's removal, which led to public protests, Syrskii had spoken of an "effective strategy that is currently demonstrating concrete results." However, a day after his own dismissal, Syrskii published an article on the Militarnyi news website, asserting that the minister's role should not involve being a "war strategist." He clarified, "War strategy, planning of operations, the situation on the front — by law, I am responsible to the Supreme Commander-in-Chief."
The core of the disagreement appears to center on the role of unmanned warfare. Syrskii was instrumental in establishing the world's first Unmanned Systems Forces (SBS), which has played a significant role in the conflict, particularly with First Person View (FPV) drones reportedly causing an estimated 95 percent of enemy casualties. Ukraine's medium and long-range drones have also reportedly disrupted Russian logistics and oil supplies, thereby reducing the intensity of Russian operations at the front.
During his six-month tenure, Fedorov actively promoted this direction, acquiring more drones in four months than the Ministry of Defense had procured in the entirety of 2025, even allocating soldiers' payroll funds to boost orders. Syrskii, however, expressed reservations. He wrote, "Against us is an enemy that is superior in everything, who fights, in particular, with artillery, aviation, and infantry. I cannot transfer a million-strong army ‘to drones’ in two months and say: now we are fighting like this."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who recently stated to The Financial Times that "the sky will be decisive in this war," commented on July 20 that he was "continuing to determine what adjustments should be made to Ukraine’s defence strategy and what priorities in production and supply to the military must be implemented as quickly as possible."
Operational Successes and Evolving Tactics
Ukraine's strategy of employing short-range drones on the battlefield has been credited with reducing its own casualties and effectively halting Russian advances this year. Syrskii noted that Ukraine gained more territory than it lost in May, a month when it began striking Russian logistics routes from Russia into its southern regions of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. By late May, Ukraine was also disrupting logistics in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, compelling Russia to transport fuel and materiel across the Sea of Azov to Crimea, which subsequently became a target for Ukrainian forces.
Robert Brovdi, Commander of Ukraine’s SBS, reported that since June 6, Ukrainian forces had disabled 196 fuel tankers and destroyed three-quarters of Russia's ferry capacity across the Kerch Strait, which connects Russia's Krasnodar Krai to Crimea. Brovdi also stated that Russia had been forced to redeploy 200 units of its own unmanned forces command, Rubicon, to protect an equivalent number of ships, thereby weakening its front lines. He indicated intentions for further maritime strikes, writing on Telegram, "That’s how many vessels will be destroyed by SBS “Birds” in the Black and Azov Seas during the remainder of July and the first half of August – it’s a matter of honor."
Additionally, Brovdi claimed that the SBS had struck 117 electrical substations and power stations this month, predominantly in Crimea, leading to widespread power outages. This has not only hindered military operations and the economy but also imposed a financial burden on Moscow, which has allocated five billion rubles ($64 million) for compensation to affected households and furloughed workers.
Ukrainian Navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk stated that Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov had been paralyzed. He also suggested that the Kerch Bridge was being left intact "so that the Russians can leave the Ukrainian Crimea," which he believed would "reduce our losses during possible future actions directly in Crimea."
Long-Range Strikes and Russian Retaliation
Recent long-range Ukrainian strikes have targeted military assets deep within Russian territory, including a Tupolev-95 strategic bomber at the Engels airfield (800 km from Ukraine) and a MiG-29 fighter jet at the Khalino airfield in Kursk. Numerous air defense radars and launchers were also reportedly hit. Ukraine also struck the Slavneft-Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl, describing it as the largest "in the central part of the country." In a departure from typical military and energy targets, Ukraine also attacked four warehouses belonging to the Wildberries online retail group, suspected of being used by Russian recruits to order protective gear and weapons.
In response, Russia has targeted Ukraine's Black Sea port infrastructure this month, aiming to disrupt grain exports. Container shipper Maersk announced on July 22 that it was diverting container traffic originally destined for Odesa or Chornomorsk to Constanta, Romania. This also meant that Ukrainian outbound container traffic awaiting shipment in Chornomorsk would need to be moved to Constanta for loading.
Ukraine, in turn, claims to have blockaded Russia's grain exports flowing down the Don River to the Sea of Azov, through which Russia exports 30 percent of its grain. Russia is also retaliating by increasing the frequency of ballistic missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. Since June 26, missiles have been included in almost every strike, a shift from previous patterns of less frequent, massive combined missile and drone attacks. Ukraine states it can intercept 95 percent of drones and 87 percent of cruise missiles, but less than half of Russia's ballistic missiles. Zelenskyy reportedly wrote to Putin in June, "You hope that ballistics will do for you what everything else has failed to do." An analysis by Militarnyi suggests that Russia is depleting its missile reserves, using more than its monthly production capacity in the first two weeks of July.
Source: Original Article
