Turkiye's Strategic Shift in Libya
Turkiye is significantly expanding its military cooperation with the eastern forces in Libya, led by General Khalifa Haftar, which marks a notable shift from its previous support for the internationally recognized government in Tripoli. This development has prompted discussions about the potential impact on Egypt's strategic interests and the broader regional security landscape.
After years of backing the Tripoli-based government, Ankara has moved to establish stronger links with the Libyan National Army (LNA), commanded by Haftar. Historically, the LNA has been supported by Egypt and other regional powers since the onset of Libya's civil war in 2014. This new phase of Turkish involvement raises questions about how it might affect Egypt, a long-time ally of Haftar.
Enhanced Military Cooperation
According to sources, Turkiye's engagement with the eastern Libyan authorities has led to agreements on developing military facilities and deploying advanced surveillance systems. These plans also include training programs in Turkiye for eastern Libyan officers, facilitated by specialized Turkish defense firms. Saddam Haftar, the deputy commander of the eastern forces, has been at the forefront of these efforts, maintaining regular communications with Turkish defense officials.
While official statements highlight joint military cooperation and expertise exchange, they stop short of mentioning the establishment of military bases or the use of drones. However, the collaboration seems to involve a deeper technical alignment between the two sides.
Egypt's Calculated Response
Despite the increased Turkish presence near Libya’s eastern border, traditionally within Egypt’s sphere of influence, Cairo has not openly expressed concern about the situation. Sources indicate that Ankara coordinates its actions in Libya with Egypt, preventing any potential tensions from escalating.
Brigadier General Samir Ragheb, an expert in strategic studies, suggests that the alignment between Turkiye and Egypt is at an all-time high, extending across several domains, including military affairs. In Sudan’s civil war, both countries support the government against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), showcasing a shared approach to regional conflicts.
Ragheb believes that Turkiye’s collaboration with Haftar could align with Egypt’s strategic interests by limiting the LNA's support for the RSF. Furthermore, Turkiye's presence in eastern Libya may fill a void that could otherwise be exploited by other regional actors, potentially impacting Egypt's policies in the Horn of Africa.
Geopolitical and Economic Interests
Turkiye's move to engage with Libya’s eastern authorities aims to secure its long-term geopolitical and economic interests, ensuring its influence in Libya regardless of any future political resolutions. A key motivation appears to be gaining acceptance from the eastern authorities for the 2019 maritime border agreement signed with the former Government of National Accord.
Notably, Egypt has not opposed a maritime demarcation based on a Benghazi-Turkiye line, suggesting a level of understanding between the nations. However, there are still limits to this cooperation. Libyan national security expert Faisal Bualraiga highlighted that while the current partnership allows Haftar to expand his alliances beyond Russia and the UAE, it lacks a formal defensive agreement and has not matured into a comprehensive strategic pact.
Bualraiga cautioned that any permanent Turkish military presence near the Egyptian or Algerian borders would likely cross a red line, potentially heightening regional sensitivities.
A New Era of Regional Dynamics
Ultimately, experts indicate that the situation in Libya is moving away from rigid polarization towards more flexible partnerships. Turkiye and Egypt appear to be embracing pragmatism over proxy conflicts, adapting to the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Source: Original Article
