Tunisia's Shifting Political Landscape
Half a decade following Tunisian President Kais Saied's significant assumption of power, the aspirations that once fueled the region after the country's pivotal 2011 revolution have largely diminished. The widespread public engagement in shaping a new constitutional and democratic framework, a hallmark of the post-revolution era, has all but disappeared. Political discussions that once dominated media channels after the 2011 uprising have now been supplanted by sports and entertainment programming, reflecting a noticeable shift in national discourse.
The nation's economy, which served as both an impetus for the 2011 revolution and a justification for Saied's 2021 actions, has continued to deteriorate. Compounding these economic challenges, a severe heatwave and widespread wildfires have led to frequent power outages, further igniting public frustration. Recently, thousands gathered in the capital to protest what they perceive as Saied's increasing authoritarianism and worsening living conditions. These demonstrations occurred alongside counter-protests by Saied's supporters, who waved flags and called for the imprisonment of those they labeled as 'traitors'. Media coverage of these events has been notably restrained, a consequence of extensive pressure on the press.
Suppression of Dissent and Human Rights Concerns
Salsabil Chellali, the Tunisia director for Human Rights Watch, highlighted a growing sentiment that criticism of the government is no longer tolerated. Chellali stated, "Five years ago, Kais Saied effectively ended Tunisia's democratic transition, steering the country back towards authoritarianism. His tenure has been marked by a human rights crisis, including the erosion of the rule of law and systematic targeting of opposition figures, civil society, and the media. This has stripped Tunisians of their civil and political rights and their ability to participate in public affairs. Under his administration, no critic is safe."
A significant number of the government's critics have either been incarcerated or have sought refuge abroad. Much of the leadership of Ennahdha, the largest party in the pre-coup parliament, is currently imprisoned, including its 85-year-old leader, Rached Ghannouchi. Following Ghannouchi's collapse in detention last month, reportedly due to the extreme heat, his current status and whereabouts remain undisclosed.
Similarly, new legislation that criminalizes content deemed 'fake news' by the state, coupled with a series of high-profile arrests, has effectively silenced critical voices within the media. For instance, Heythem El Mekki, a prominent political commentator and satirist, was compelled to leave Tunisia after receiving a one-year prison sentence for a social media post from three years prior, which critiqued deficiencies at a hospital morgue in Sfax. According to Hamza Meddeb, a Tunisian academic associated with the Carnegie Middle East Centre, "There's censorship across the board."
Infrastructure Failures Amidst Climate Challenges
The ongoing wildfires have ravaged an estimated 4,400 hectares (approximately 10,900 acres) of land, despite international assistance from Italy and Algeria. State-owned electricity and gas company STEG has implemented staggered power cuts to manage overwhelming demand for cooling appliances during the heatwave. These outages are not only causing widespread public discomfort but also leading to significant crop destruction and damage to Tunisian industries.
An anonymous Tunisia-based analyst, speaking out of fear of reprisal, commented, "There is no plan for anything. Typically, countries anticipate increased demand for electricity and water during summer and plan accordingly. In Tunisia, we lack financial resources, investment, and a coherent strategy." This individual likened the situation to being "in a ship being captained by a man with no knowledge of sailing," underscoring a perceived absence of central planning for emergencies.
Despite these challenges, President Saied maintains a degree of support from certain segments of society, who recall the legislative impasses and factionalism characteristic of the pre-coup parliament. Saied's supporters in parliament and the media acknowledge the hardships from power and water shortages but frame the solution as requiring reform rather than a complete systemic overhaul, often contrasting current difficulties with those experienced under the fragmented pre-2022 parliament.
Earlier this week, parliamentary speaker Ibrahim Bouderbala cautioned citizens against allowing anger over resource shortages to escalate, citing examples of other nations that recovered from similar crises through effective governance. President Saied has also called for an immediate end to power and water cuts, asserting close monitoring of the situation and warning of firm state action against anyone attempting to exacerbate the country's challenges.
International Perspectives and Future Outlook
Power outages, now lasting up to 12 hours, are inflicting severe economic and physical hardship on Tunisians. Meddeb noted, "Livestock are dying. Restaurants are closing. Sick people are suffering and some of the old are actually dying." He added, "That anger has to go somewhere and it's being aimed at the state-owned electricity and water companies, sometimes it's aimed at the government, but never at the one figure who has control: the president." Meddeb, like many other Tunisian journalists and academics, has since relocated to France, while those remaining often resort to self-censorship or deflection.
President Saied's stronghold on power appears to be reinforced by external support. The European Union, primarily concerned with mitigating migrant crossings from Tunisia's coast, has seemingly prioritized stability over addressing democratic backsliding, entering into various agreements with the Tunisian government despite reservations from migration and human rights organizations. Tunisia's neighbors, Algeria and Libya, also express little desire for instability in the region. Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune recently pledged to defend Tunisia against any threats to its stability.
Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa director for the Crisis Group, suggested that under Saied, Tunisia will remain "lost in his own delusions, worldview… where everything that goes wrong is the result of a conspiracy against him." Fabiani also observed that "Nearly all of Tunisia’s external partners have given up on reform entirely. Those that cling on, such as Italy – which has a stake in working with Tunisia on migration – say that they’re routinely frustrated by a bureaucracy that’s terrified of being perceived from above of having made any mistake, so nothing gets done."
