Electoral Process Underway in Pakistan-Administered Kashmir Following Protests
Pakistan-administered Kashmir is currently navigating an electoral process for its provincial legislature amidst a backdrop of recent civil unrest. The region has experienced weeks of demonstrations and sit-ins since early June, resulting in numerous casualties. These protests are closely linked to the upcoming elections, initially slated for a single day but now reorganized into a staggered schedule due to security concerns.
Voting in the Mirpur division is set to proceed as planned on July 27. However, the Poonch division, which has been a focal point of the protests, will now hold its elections on August 10. Muzaffarabad and the 12 seats reserved for refugees from Indian-administered Kashmir, who reside in other parts of Pakistan, will cast their ballots on August 2. Justice (retired) Ghulam Mustafa Mughal, the region's Chief Election Commissioner, confirmed these changes, attributing them to security challenges stemming from the recent disturbances.
The Core of the Dispute: Reserved Seats
A central issue fueling the agitation revolves around the 12 reserved seats for refugees. Protesters advocate for their abolition, arguing that only residents of Pakistan-administered Kashmir should be eligible to contest elections for the regional legislature. This demand has intensified tensions as the region prepares to vote.
A 60-year-old driver, who wished to remain anonymous, expressed his sympathy for the Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC), the movement behind the protests. He noted, "All the people in this movement are poor people, my sympathies are with them. They are the ones fighting and demanding for my rights." Despite his support for the movement's objectives, he declared his intention not to vote, stating, "We should be part of the democratic process, but the person you want to vote for isn’t allowed on the ballot." He referred to the JAAC, which was banned in June, and criticized the available candidates as corrupt.
A Region of Contention and Self-Governance
Kashmir, a picturesque Himalayan territory, has been a source of conflict between Pakistan and India since their independence in 1947. While both nations claim the entire region, they each administer separate portions. Pakistan-administered Kashmir, known locally as Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), is home to over four million people and operates with a semi-autonomous government, complete with its own president, prime minister, and Supreme Court.
The current elections were always anticipated to be influenced by the latest crisis, marking the JAAC's fifth significant mobilization since its inception in September 2023. Despite the unrest, Chief Election Commissioner Mughal maintained that only the Poonch division presented significant security concerns. Deputy Commissioner Munir Qureshi of Muzaffarabad emphasized the continued normalcy of daily life in the capital, pointing to bustling markets and active campaign trails. He stated that citizens' choice to vote or not is a democratic right, and additional security personnel have been requested for the 890 polling stations across Muzaffarabad's five constituencies.
The Absence of the Banned Movement
A notable aspect of the election is the absence of the banned JAAC from the ballot. Some of its members who attempted to run as independent candidates had their nominations rejected. The movement's sit-ins have persisted for over a month in Rawalakot, Sudhnoti, and other areas of the Poonch division, near the Indian border. JAAC leadership has openly called for a boycott of the vote, raising questions about the election's legitimacy in the eyes of the AJK populace.
Origins of the Protests and Subsequent Crackdown
The protests that have characterized this election cycle began over two years ago, initially focusing on price increases. The JAAC, formed in 2023, put forth ten demands, including subsidized wheat, reduced electricity costs, and a government commitment to curb the perks and pensions of AJK officials. While the Pakistani government intervened in May 2024 to provide subsidies, and a charter of demands was signed by the AJK government in October of the same year, the JAAC's focus shifted by June to the abolition of the 12 assembly seats reserved for Kashmiri refugees settled in Pakistan.
The group contends that these seats grant undue influence to outsiders over AJK's governance and budget, while local residents lack a voice in their occupants. On June 5, the AJK government declared JAAC a proscribed organization under anti-terrorism legislation, just weeks before a planned protest on June 9. This declaration was followed by the arrest of dozens of JAAC members and supporters, including its leader, Shaukat Nawaz Mir. The subsequent period saw the deadliest unrest in AJK in years, with disputed death tolls but conservative estimates placing the number at nearly 30, including both protesters and law enforcement personnel.
Access to Pakistan-administered Kashmir was restricted, particularly for the Poonch division, disrupting essential supplies and financial services. Mobile and fiber internet services were largely suspended across the territory, with limited exceptions for critical government functions. The Election Commission's role has also come under scrutiny from the JAAC, with members like Sardar Amanullah from Sudhnoti district claiming their independent candidacies were unfairly rejected. Chief Election Commissioner Mughal countered that rejections were based on candidates' names appearing in police reports and Pakistan's anti-terrorism watchlist. Abid Shaheen, a JAAC core committee member, characterized the vote as a "selection, not an election" given the group's proscription.
The Disputed Refugee Seats
Of the AJK Legislative Assembly's 45 general seats, 12 are specifically allocated for Kashmiri refugees who settled in Pakistan after 1947: six for Jammu and six for the Kashmir Valley. This arrangement, established through legislation in the 1960s and later enshrined in AJK's 1974 Interim Constitution, was recently upheld by the AJK Supreme Court. The court ruled that these seats could only be abolished through a formal constitutional amendment passed by the assembly, not through public protest.
The AJK electorate has grown significantly, from over 3.2 million in 2021 to more than 3.8 million this year. Within this growth, the 12 refugee constituencies have expanded from approximately 405,000 voters to nearly 439,000. The JAAC argues that this increase has amplified the influence of seats that were not originally intended to carry such political weight. Historically, all ten general elections since AJK adopted its parliamentary system in 1975 have resulted in governments aligned with the party in power in Islamabad. Political analyst Zulfiqar Ali noted that these 12 seats have rarely been the decisive factor in forming or dissolving a government, a role typically played by native AJK politicians or the federal ruling party in Islamabad. Islamabad has shown little inclination to reconsider the refugee seats, with Defence Minister Khawaja Asif stating that abolishing them under pressure would "sabotage the electoral process."
Campaigning in the Shadow of Crisis
The recent crisis significantly curtailed campaigning efforts in June for the parties on the ballot. Iftikhar Gillani, a PMLN candidate from Muzaffarabad, observed, "Frankly speaking, the campaigning was dead due to the protests all June." He noted that campaigning only resumed in the last few days. Gillani believes that many Kashmiris differentiate between supporting the JAAC and participating in the election, even if some dedicated supporters might abstain from voting. He acknowledged, "But there is obviously no denying that there is a chunk of the population which fully believes in JAAC, and they might not cast their votes."
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