Disarmament Deal Sparks Israeli Political Turmoil
The recent announcement of an agreement for the Palestinian group Hamas to disarm in Gaza, spearheaded by United States President Donald Trump, has been met with a complex and often hostile reaction within Israel. While President Trump has heralded the deal as a success, its stipulations — particularly those requiring Israel's withdrawal from the Palestinian enclave and a gradual transfer of authority to a Palestinian administration — have generated considerable apprehension among Israeli politicians and in the Israeli media.
Official commentary from the Israeli government has been conspicuously absent. However, an unnamed senior Israeli official reportedly stated on Friday that, despite numerous reports of diplomatic progress in the Gaza Strip, Israel would not relinquish its current positions within Gaza until what it deems to be the “genuine disarmament of Hamas” is achieved. Conversely, President Trump has indicated that Israel expressed satisfaction with the agreement.
Domestic Opposition to Withdrawal
The prospect of an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and subsequent reconstruction efforts faces substantial opposition from a significant portion of the Israeli populace. This sentiment largely stems from the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack originating from Gaza. Despite extensive Israeli military operations in Gaza following the attack, which have resulted in a substantial number of Palestinian casualties and widespread destruction, public opinion polls suggest a hardline stance persists among many Israelis.
A poll conducted in May indicated that 82 percent of Jewish Israeli respondents supported the forced expulsion of Palestinians from their homes in Gaza. The same survey revealed that 56 percent also supported the expulsion of Palestinian citizens of Israel from their residences. A subsequent poll a month later found that 64 percent of those surveyed believed there were “no innocents” among Palestinians in Gaza. Furthermore, several Israeli politicians, including government ministers, have voiced intentions to establish illegal Jewish settlements in Gaza, similar to those in the occupied West Bank.
Given this prevailing sentiment, the disarmament agreement, which includes a potential Israeli withdrawal, has been swiftly condemned by many Israeli political figures. Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel's far-right National Security Minister, publicly denounced the agreement as “unacceptable.” He asserted on social media that “A commitment to stop the assassinations of [Hamas’s] murderers is tantamount to agreeing to Hamas organising for the next massacre.” Ben-Gvir advocated for continued assassinations in Gaza and “encouragement of emigration,” a term widely interpreted as referring to ethnic cleansing. Even centrist politicians, such as Gadi Eisenkot, a former chief of staff and a leading rival to Prime Minister Netanyahu, expressed skepticism. Eisenkot maintained that any deal failing to achieve the war's objectives — specifically, the complete dismantling of Hamas's military and political power — would constitute a “total failure.” He noted that nearly three years after the October 7 attack, Hamas had reportedly regained strength, possessing a similar number of operatives as before the incident.
Netanyahu's Political Calculus
Prime Minister Netanyahu has yet to offer his personal commentary on the agreement. However, US-Israeli pollster and consultant Dahlia Scheindlin suggests that the stakes are exceptionally high for the prime minister, with national elections just months away. Netanyahu's prospects of avoiding conviction on multiple corruption charges are closely tied to his performance in the upcoming October elections. Current polls indicate that opposition parties are leading, potentially securing enough seats to form a government.
“Netanyahu’s considerations have nothing to do with public trauma [from the October 7 attack],” Scheindlin said, and everything to do with politics. “He will care primarily – probably exclusively – about what his current coalition partners think.”
Scheindlin indicated that a withdrawal from Gaza is likely out of the question for Netanyahu. She suggested that any political maneuver he undertakes to maintain his coalition and appeal to right-wing voters must also avoid further alienating his American allies, who appear to be growing increasingly frustrated with his actions. Scheindlin speculated that Netanyahu might engage in symbolic movements of the Israeli army within Gaza to demonstrate compliance without actually undermining the agreement.
One possible tactic, according to Scheindlin, could involve the Israeli military retreating to the positions it was supposed to occupy under the October 2025 ceasefire agreement. However, Israel has reportedly killed over 1,200 Palestinians since that agreement and has consistently expanded its territorial control, often disregarding the terms of the deal.
Navigating US Expectations and Domestic Pressure
Managing the United States' expectations of Israel presents a significant challenge, not only for Netanyahu but for all politicians vying for leadership. An anonymous US official has already stated that President Trump would be “very, very disappointed” if Israel failed to adhere to the disarmament agreement. Dov Waxman, a professor of Israel studies at the University of California, Los Angeles, noted that Netanyahu already faces a difficult path to forming any government, a challenge that would only intensify if he were to agree to the terms of the recent deal.
Historically, Netanyahu has demonstrated an ability to circumvent demands placed on Israel concerning Gaza, maintaining unity within his far-right coalition. Some members of his government have repeatedly threatened to dissolve the government if the conflict concludes without the total defeat of Hamas. While Netanyahu may remain silent on the latest deal for now, he will eventually be compelled to address it.
“That could be a real problem,” Waxman said, “because, if he criticises the deal, he risks angering Trump who – though he hasn’t endorsed him [in the Israeli election] yet – he must be hoping will deliver him some kind of present during the election cycle, whether that’s a further call for his pardon or normalisation with Saudi Arabia, maybe both. But he has to keep Trump on his side.”
Although the Israeli public has grown increasingly skeptical about whether Israeli security remains a top priority for the Trump administration, the necessity of the US security umbrella is widely accepted across the political spectrum. Elements within the political establishment have capitalized on any perceived weakening of this relationship to criticize Netanyahu.
Nimrod Goren, president and founder of Mitvim – The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, commented on Netanyahu's past ability to navigate such situations. “He’ll make sure Trump gets his announcement, his signing ceremony and all the optics are in place, but I don’t see him withdrawing from Gaza,” Goren stated. He further suggested that the idea of withdrawal goes beyond mere public opinion, conflicting with Netanyahu’s fundamental philosophy and worldview that Israel must maintain a presence beyond its borders to counter potential threats. Goren concluded that he anticipates escalation in the lead-up to the election rather than discussions of withdrawal.
