Iran's Strategic Targeting Amid Escalating Tensions
The ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States has seen a strategic pattern in Iran's choice of targets. While Tehran has launched attacks on Gulf states and Jordan, it has notably avoided engaging US naval assets or Israel. This calculated approach is perceived by analysts as an attempt to influence US President Donald Trump's decisions without broadening the scope of the conflict.
US-Iran Conflict Dynamics
As the US increases its military operations against Iran, targeting infrastructure such as railway stations and power facilities, Iran has retaliated by attacking civilian and military sites in Gulf states like Kuwait and Bahrain. According to retired Lebanese Brigadier General Elias Hanna, this strategy avoids direct military confrontation with the US, which could provoke a significant response given the sophisticated air defenses protecting US naval assets.
Rationale Behind Targeting Gulf States
Tehran's focus on neighboring Gulf states is partly attributed to its belief that these countries are complicit in US operations against Iran. Atifeh Taghiani, a political science professor at the University of Tehran, argues that the US uses Gulf states, particularly Kuwait, to strike Iranian infrastructure. She asserts that international law allows Iran to retaliate against nations from which attacks are launched, suggesting US naval forces intentionally target Iranian civilian sites to sow discord in the region.
"The US intends to deepen hostility among regional countries and complicate Iran's response," Taghiani noted.
Counterarguments and Gulf States' Position
Conversely, Abdullah al-Shayji, a political science professor at Kuwait University, dismisses Iranian claims as unfounded propaganda. He highlights that US military operations primarily originate from two aircraft carriers, George W Bush and Abraham Lincoln, stationed close to Iran. He points out that Gulf states have agreed with the US on a defensive military presence and have communicated to Tehran that their territories are not launch points for attacks.
Al-Shayji explains that Iran's attacks on essential facilities, such as water desalination plants, during peak summer months in Kuwait, represent not only international law violations but also an effort to pressure civilians. He criticizes Iran's approach as irrational and suggests Gulf states need a new security framework, given the limitations of US protection.
Conflict and Diplomatic Efforts
The conflict, which began with joint US-Israel attacks on Iran, has seen both sides accusing each other of violating a ceasefire agreement. Although acknowledging Trump's role, al-Shayji emphasizes the need for resumed negotiations and strategic coordination among Gulf states to prevent further escalation.
Perspectives on Iran's Tactics
Abdullah Bandar al-Otaibi, an assistant professor at Qatar University, concurs that neither the US nor Iran desires a full-scale war, with both opting for selective targeting. He suggests Iran avoids US naval assets and Israeli refueling aircraft to prevent broader conflict, choosing instead to focus on Gulf states to ease domestic pressures.
Al-Otaibi warns that any Iranian attack resulting in significant civilian casualties could escalate the situation, highlighting Iran's strategy of unilateral deterrence. He also discusses the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, noting that the US aims to turn it into a liability for Iran. Moreover, an Iranian strike on Oman shortly after diplomatic visits underscores Tehran's ambition for control over the strait.
Finally, al-Otaibi observes that Iran-aligned groups like the Houthis in Yemen have thus far refrained from joining the current conflict, unlike factions in Lebanon and Iraq, adding to the pressure on Tehran.
Source: Original Article
