Germany's Shifting Stance on Arms Exports to Israel
In the first five months of 2026, Germany authorized approximately 800 million euros ($913 million) in arms export licenses for Israel. This figure surpasses the total value of approvals granted in the preceding 20 months combined, according to confirmations from the German government. The majority of these approvals were processed in April and May, as detailed in a response from the Federal Foreign Office to a parliamentary inquiry by the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
This surge in weapons exports to Israel, a long-standing ally, occurs despite public expressions of concern from the German government regarding the humanitarian impact of Israel's military operations in Gaza. The substantial increase indicates a complex interplay between Germany's strategic alliances, economic interests, and evolving public and international pressures.
The 'Major Maritime Project' and Submarine Deliveries
More than 60 percent of the value of the recently approved arms licenses is designated for an undisclosed 'major maritime project.' Analysts widely believe this project refers to the construction of a submarine by the German manufacturer TKMS. The INS Drakon, a Dolphin II-class submarine with potential nuclear capabilities, completed its inaugural voyage last year at a shipyard in Kiel and was reportedly handed over to the Israeli Navy recently, according to German media. Its estimated value is around 480 million euros ($548 million).
Reports suggest the INS Drakon might incorporate a vertical launching system (VLS), which could enable it to deploy nuclear-tipped cruise or ballistic missiles. If confirmed, this would make Israel only the second navy globally, after South Korea, to operate a modern, conventionally powered submarine with air-independent propulsion (AIP) equipped with a VLS. During its sea trials, the submarine's tower was obscured to prevent detailed observation of its weapon configuration. Such submarines are strategically significant, potentially providing a sea-based second-strike capability, allowing for nuclear retaliation even after an initial nuclear attack.
The German Foreign Office and the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, responsible for arms export licenses, have refrained from commenting on these specifics. Max Mutschler, a senior researcher at the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies, highlighted the lack of transparency surrounding arms exports, stating, "Unfortunately, the fact that the federal government does not explicitly mention this is also typical of the lack of transparency surrounding arms exports."
The order for the submarine dates back to 2012, with conflicting reports last year regarding the approval of its export license. While TKMS indicated approval, the German government initially denied it.
Germany's Evolving Export Policy and Economic Drivers
Germany's stance on arms exports to Israel has seen fluctuations. Concerns related to proceedings at the International Court of Justice in The Hague, alongside shifting domestic public opinion increasingly critical of arms exports to Israel, may have contributed to previous hesitations. Germany reportedly contributes to financing a portion of the costs for the Drakon and future Dakar-class submarines.
In August, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced a temporary halt on further licenses for military equipment that could be used in the Gaza Strip. However, this partial suspension was short-lived, with restrictions lifted in November, allowing for case-by-case review of export applications. Even during the suspension, previously approved deliveries continued. For instance, a $794,000 weapons consignment from Germany arrived in Israel in September.
Mutschler noted that some government officials found the export of certain weapons problematic due to credible reports of alleged war crimes during military operations in Gaza. However, these concerns were not sufficient to implement a generally restrictive arms export policy toward Israel.
Germany is a major global arms exporter. In the first half of 2026, licenses for arms worth 13.87 billion euros ($15.8 billion) were granted, a significant increase compared to the same period in 2025, with Ukraine remaining the primary recipient. Mutschler explained that arms exports are often viewed by federal governments primarily from an economic perspective, serving to strengthen the defense industry. He added, "The fact that these arms shipments can also be used to commit war crimes seems to play a significantly smaller role in the decision-making process."
The German defense industry has experienced a boom amid economic challenges in other sectors, such as the automotive industry. This growth is publicly linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, though plans for increased defense spending predated the conflict. Pieter D. Wezeman, a senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, observes a broader trend of increased demand for arms in Europe and other regions. He highlighted Germany's growing military expenditure, aiming to double it from under 2 percent to 3.5 percent of its GDP within a few years, making it the largest military spender in Europe (excluding Russia) and a core component of the European military-industrial base.
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