Intensified Warfare on the Eastern Front
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has witnessed a marked intensification, with both sides escalating their military actions. Ukraine's General Staff of the Armed Forces has reported a substantial increase in Russian casualties, estimating 42,800 losses in July. If these figures are accurate, it would represent the highest monthly casualty rate for Russia this year, according to Kyiv's assessments. In response to perceived battlefield setbacks and domestic energy challenges, Russia has reportedly intensified its use of glide bombs and ballistic missiles—weapon systems for which Ukraine has struggled to develop effective countermeasures.
Ukraine's Ministry of Defense has indicated that Russia launched approximately 8,300 glide bombs in July, a number surpassing any previous month since the conflict began. This surge in Russian firepower coincides with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's anticipation of a potential mobilization of up to half a million Russian reservists in October. Independent verification of casualty figures from either side remains challenging.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has, to date, refrained from deploying regular army conscripts and reservists in what he terms the "Special Military Operation" in Ukraine, likely to avoid potential domestic political repercussions. Should Ukraine's pressure necessitate such a move, it could significantly impact Putin's public standing within Russia. Regarding Ukrainian casualties, President Zelenskyy recently stated that the country has sustained approximately 450,000 casualties, including 50,000 fatalities. A recent analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggests a notable shift in the casualty ratio, estimating it at nearly 8:1 in the first half of 2026 in favor of Ukraine, a significant increase from the 2:1 to 3:1 ratio observed earlier in the conflict. This shift is largely attributed to Ukraine's effective deployment of drones, which Zelenskyy claims were responsible for 30,272 Russian casualties in July alone.
Shifting Battlefield Dynamics and Territorial Control
Accompanying Russia's reported increase in casualties is a perceived decline in its battlefield effectiveness. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington-based think tank that monitors territorial control using open-source intelligence, estimates that Russia gained control of only 37.85 square kilometers (approximately 15 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in July. This contrasts sharply with the 455,000 square kilometers (176,000 square miles) it occupied in July 2025, highlighting a significant reduction in territorial gains this year. Overall, the ISW calculates that Russia has lost 183.5 square kilometers (70 square miles) of Ukrainian territory this year, a reversal from the 2,198 square kilometers (848 square miles) it seized during the initial seven months of 2025.
Despite these territorial losses, Moscow has employed a tactic of infiltrating areas, sending individual troops to establish positions and await reinforcements. This strategy aims to contest Ukrainian control over territory, even if not fully establishing firm control. The ISW reported that Russia infiltrated 121.6 square kilometers (47 square miles) in July, bringing the total infiltrated territory for the year to 379.9 square kilometers (147 square miles). While many of these infiltrations have been repelled by Ukrainian forces, they pose a potential threat, particularly in Kostiantynivka, one of Ukraine's fortified cities, where Ukrainian defenders have recently expressed concerns about their ability to maintain their hold for an extended period.
Ukraine's Renewed Aerial Offensive
Ukraine has also intensified its aerial operations, with President Zelenskyy declaring a successful 40-day air strike campaign, which was subsequently renewed on August 4. This multi-pronged campaign has focused on three key areas: targeting military production and oil refining facilities within Russia, disrupting energy and weapons supply lines in occupied territories near the front lines, and striking front-line positions. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) has claimed responsibility for striking 14 refineries, numerous oil depots and loading terminals, 14 aircraft, and four airfields during this 40-day period.
Many of these strikes occurred recently, including attacks on a Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, three refineries in Ufa (approximately 1,600 kilometers or 994 miles from Ukraine), the Slavneft-Yanos oil refinery in Yaroslavl, the Engels 2 and Saratov airfields, and a factory in Izhevsk reportedly manufacturing Shahed drones. Military technology expert Serhii Beskrestnov noted that, unlike the larger Shahed factory in Alabuga which relies on Chinese components, the Izhevsk facility predominantly uses Russian parts. A recent analysis by the Financial Times, based on satellite imagery, suggests that Ukraine's strikes have incapacitated approximately one-third of Russia's actual refining capacity.
To achieve these results, Ukraine has been deploying nearly 10,000 long-range drones monthly. Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin reported that 6,225 Ukrainian drones targeted Moscow in July, accounting for roughly two-thirds of all Ukrainian long-range strikes on Russian soil. Ukraine's initial goal at the end of 2023 was to produce 11,000 long-range drones throughout 2024. The country has since secured agreements with nine allied nations to manufacture drones on their soil, with 50 percent of the production allocated to Ukraine, and an additional 15 agreements are reportedly pending.
The impact of the 40-day campaign has been particularly pronounced in occupied Crimea, where Ukraine has struck 201 electricity substations. Rodion Miroshnik, the Kremlin's ambassador-at-large, stated that "The Crimean Peninsula’s power grid faced an unprecedented load and operated in critical mode. Rolling blackouts occurred in all Crimean districts." Similar widespread power outages were reported in the adjacent occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhia. Ukraine also claims to have sunk or disabled 206 Russian tankers and ferries transporting oil and military supplies to Crimea across the Black and Azov seas, with the head of its unmanned systems forces indicating a diminishing number of available targets. The energy crisis has compelled the Kremlin to allocate billions of rubles to subsidize the peninsula, including a 100-ruble (approximately $1.20) price cap on petrol implemented last week. Ukrainian strikes have continued, with a 60,000-tonne petroleum products tank farm in Taman, Russia, used to supply Crimea, being leveled by fire on July 31. Subsequent strikes targeted aircraft hangars in Yevpatoria, a naval shipyard in Chornomorske, and an artillery brigade's supply base, all located in Crimea.
Russia's Retaliatory Measures and Air Defense Challenges
In response to Ukrainian actions, Russia has increased its use of glide bombs, which are inertial ordnance equipped with fins, providing extended range and improved accuracy. These bombs can be deployed from safe distances of 20 to 30 kilometers (12 to 19 miles) from the front lines, with some carrying up to three tonnes of explosives. Their high speed makes them difficult to intercept by drones and resistant to electronic jamming. In addition to glide bombs, Russia also launched its highest monthly total of missiles against Ukrainian cities in July, with 376 launches, surpassing the previous record of 288 in March. Of these, 120 were ballistic missiles, and their high density has reportedly depleted Ukraine's limited stock of Patriot interceptors, which are the only missiles proven effective against them.
During the past week, Ukraine managed to intercept only one out of 51 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. This high penetration rate has directly resulted in civilian casualties, with at least nine deaths reported on August 1 and 17 on August 5 in Kyiv alone. Russian production of Iskander-M missiles is estimated at 70 per month, but there are indications that North Korean ballistic missiles may now be in use. President Zelenskyy claimed that a missile fired at Radushne, Ukraine, last month was of Korean manufacture, marking only the second such missile to be used in the conflict. Zelenskyy has appealed to international partners to provide some of their estimated 4,000 to 5,000 Patriot interceptors, emphasizing that "The United States knows what we need. Europe knows what we need. Anti-ballistic missiles must protect people – not sit in stockpiles." Figures from the Ukrainian air force underscore this vulnerability, showing that while 4,626 missiles of various types have been intercepted since the war began, only 437 of these were ballistic missiles.
