Growing Chinese Maritime Activity Near Taiwan
In recent weeks, China has significantly expanded its maritime operations in the waters situated to the east of Taiwan. This increased presence, involving both the Chinese coastguard and civilian fleet, has led to speculation that Beijing might be developing a containment strategy aimed at severing Taiwan from international trade routes and external support. Official announcements from China’s Maritime Safety Administration and coastguard detail numerous patrols and specific “maritime law enforcement operations” conducted throughout June and July.
While China routinely conducts patrols within the Taiwan Strait, the body of water approximately 180 kilometers (112 miles) wide separating mainland China from Taiwan, the recent frequency and eastward shift of these operations are noteworthy, according to expert observations. K. Tristan Tang, a nonresident fellow at the United States-based National Bureau of Asian Research, highlighted the strategic and symbolic implications of this shift for Taiwan. Tang stated that Beijing appears to be asserting its administrative claims further into Taiwan’s eastern waters, effectively aiming to encircle the island rather than merely encroaching upon its space within the strait.
These “law enforcement operations” have reportedly involved patrolling the designated areas and requesting commercial vessels to provide details regarding their origin and destination. The move eastward coincides with a general increase in Chinese maritime activity around Taiwan and its surrounding islands. Taiwan reported 55 sightings of Chinese coastguard and research vessels in June, a notable increase from 30 sightings in May. This activity included Chinese vessels operating near the uninhabited Dongsha Islands, also known as the Pratas Islands, which are controlled by Taiwan and located in the South China Sea.
Beijing has publicly stated that these operations are a direct response to ongoing discussions between Japan and the Philippines concerning their maritime boundaries. China claims that these discussions infringe upon its “territorial sovereignty as well as its maritime rights and interests.” It is worth noting that some of the waters in question, located around southern Japan and the northern Philippines, overlap with Taiwan’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), which extends 200 nautical miles (370km) from its coastline. On July 4, China’s coastguard affirmed its intention to continue law enforcement activities east of Taiwan, citing the need to “firmly safeguard China’s territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.”
China considers Taiwan a province and, consequently, views Taiwan’s EEZ as falling under its jurisdiction. Furthermore, China asserts claims over vast areas of the South China Sea and East China Sea, some of which are contested by neighboring nations including Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei. Previously, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has characterized its activities near Taiwan as “legitimate actions to exercise China’s jurisdiction, safeguard regional stability and uphold order at sea in accordance with the law.”
“Grey Zone” Tactics and Potential Blockade
Ray Powell, the founder and director of Sea Light, a maritime transparency project based at Stanford University, interprets the escalation in patrols as part of China’s “boa constrictor strategy,” designed to gradually tighten its grip on Taiwan. China has consistently stated its intention to annex Taiwan, by either peaceful or forceful means, and employs a range of pressure tactics. These include limiting Taiwan’s access to international forums such as the World Health Organization, conducting drone and fighter jet incursions, and alleged cyberattacks, according to Taiwan’s National Security Bureau.
These maneuvers are often referred to as “grey zone” tactics, which are intended to deplete Taiwan’s limited resources and undermine public morale, ultimately aiming to convince its 23 million residents that annexation is inevitable, as stated by Taiwanese officials. Security analysts, including Powell, have expressed concerns that these “law enforcement” activities could rapidly escalate into a full-scale blockade or quarantine. Taiwan, being an island nation that relies heavily on imports for nearly all of its energy supplies, is particularly susceptible to such pressure.
Powell warned that the current situation, characterized by radio challenges to commercial vessels, could be a precursor to more severe measures. He questioned what the next stage might entail, suggesting that stopping and inspecting ships or rerouting them would not be a significant leap. He highlighted the potential for China to begin restricting Taiwan’s access to essential commodities like liquefied natural gas (LNG). China has previously indicated that a blockade remains a potential option. Since 2022, Beijing has regularly conducted large-scale military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, including a simulated blockade of the island during its most recent drills in December.
While coastguard activities are generally considered less overtly aggressive than naval patrols, Chauluen Lin, an expert in asymmetric warfare at Taipei’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, suggests that China’s coastguard fleet could effectively function as a “second navy.” It is important to note that China’s coastguard is not a civilian law enforcement agency but falls under the jurisdiction of the Central Military Commission as a division of the People’s Armed Police.
International Reactions and U.S. Engagement
The unusual nature of China’s coastguard patrols has prompted a rare joint statement from the United Kingdom, Germany, and France in late June. The statement condemned the actions, asserting that they “threaten regional stability and the freedom of navigation and safety of international shipping.” The three European nations reiterated their opposition to any unilateral alterations to the status quo, particularly those involving threats, use of force, or coercion. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also voiced disagreement with the expanded patrols last week, stating that they undermine regional stability.
William Yang, the Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Northeast Asia, suggested that Beijing might be leveraging a perceived distraction on the part of the United States, particularly with its focus on the conflict in Iran and a U.S. president who appears to have an ambivalent stance toward Taiwan. Despite not formally recognizing Taiwan as an independent nation, the U.S. has pledged to assist the island in its self-defense, primarily through arms sales, training, and intelligence sharing. However, U.S. President Donald Trump cast doubt on these commitments when he indicated that U.S. weapons sales could serve as a “negotiating chip” with China following a meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in May.
Yang emphasized that from Beijing’s perspective, the external environment in the Indo-Pacific region has undergone a fundamental shift, with Washington heavily preoccupied with the Middle East. He concluded that, as a result, the U.S. currently lacks the capacity to adequately monitor or respond to the expansion of Chinese maritime operations in these sensitive waters.
